Sovereign Interest in Bitcoin Surges Through MSTR Buys, Says Standard Chartered

Government-linked investment bodies are quietly increasing their exposure to Bitcoin — not by buying the asset directly, but by accumulating shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), according to a new report from Standard Chartered Bank. The firm views this trend as validation of its bullish long-term price target of $500,000 per BTC before the end of Donald Trump's expected second term in 2029.

In a research note shared Tuesday, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, said recent 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveal a pattern of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin — particularly among sovereign and semi-sovereign funds. These quarterly filings, which track holdings by institutional managers with over $100 million in assets, showed a marked preference for indirect exposure through MSTR, which holds substantial BTC reserves.

“The 13F data reinforces our core view: institutional portfolios are moving from underweight to more balanced Bitcoin allocations,” Kendrick wrote. “This supports our call that Bitcoin could hit $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”

While direct exposure via Bitcoin ETFs saw mixed results — with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board exiting its 3,400 BTC-equivalent stake in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF — indirect exposure via MicroStrategy appeared to gain momentum. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala fund increased its IBIT holdings slightly, but Kendrick emphasized that the real story was in MSTR accumulation.

“MicroStrategy acts as a regulatory workaround for institutions in regions that currently restrict direct crypto investments,” Kendrick explained. He pointed to new MSTR investments by a range of public-sector players. In Q1, Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and major South Korean pension funds each picked up roughly 700 BTC equivalent via MSTR. U.S. state funds in California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky added a combined 1,000 BTC equivalent. France and Saudi Arabia initiated smaller positions, marking their first indirect steps into Bitcoin markets.

Kendrick stressed that these developments show how sovereign investors are warming up to Bitcoin through regulated proxies. “The broadening institutional base is critical to price appreciation,” he said. “When these players buy Bitcoin — even indirectly — upward price momentum follows.”

Beyond Bitcoin, Kendrick also reiterated Standard Chartered's other crypto forecasts: BNB could surge to $2,775 by 2028, Avalanche's AVAX may climb to $250 by 2029, and XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028. His Ethereum forecast remains more conservative, with a $4,000 price target set for 2025. He also predicts that stablecoins will see explosive growth, with the sector ballooning to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Notably, Kendrick clarified that neither he nor Standard Chartered's crypto division holds any digital assets, emphasizing the bank's objectivity in its analysis.