Former BlackRock Executive Predicts SEC Approval for Bitcoin ETF in 2024

Former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield, now CEO of MarketVector Indexes, predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely approve a Bitcoin spot ETF within "three to six months." Schoenfield made this estimation during a panel discussion on ETFs at CCData's Digital Asset Summit in London, where he was joined by Martin Bednall, another ex-BlackRock director who now serves as CEO of Jacobi Asset Management. Bednall suggested that the SEC would likely approve all ETF applications simultaneously to avoid granting any entity a first-mover advantage.

Schoenfield had previously suggested that it might take "nine to twelve months" for the industry to secure approval, but the SEC's recent approach, which involves seeking public comments rather than outright rejections, has altered his outlook. He also mentioned the Grayscale lawsuit, which the SEC lost, potentially necessitating the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

BlackRock, a leading traditional asset manager with $9.42 trillion in assets under management (AUM), stands as the most likely candidate to secure approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF, boasting a remarkable track record of 575-1 when it comes to getting ETFs approved by the SEC. Despite BlackRock's prior skepticism about Bitcoin, Schoenfield and Bednall both believe that the firm's substantial brand recognition and resources would grant it a significant first-mover advantage should the SEC greenlight Bitcoin spot ETFs.

However, Schoenfield expressed a more balanced view, acknowledging that while BlackRock might strive to dominate the market, numerous other firms are deeply committed to tradable digital assets, with several being even closer to the crypto ecosystem than BlackRock. He anticipates intense competition in the space.

Schoenfield also mentioned that MarketVector Indexes has conducted analyses suggesting that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could lead to an influx of "$150 to $200 billion" in investments into Bitcoin products over three years, potentially doubling or tripling the existing assets under management in Bitcoin-related products.