Bitcoin Plans a Comeback Above $95K, but a $98K–$110K Wall Still Looms
Bitcoin has clawed its way back above the $95,000 mark, easing recent downside pressure and lifting prices to their highest levels in roughly two months. The move has injected fresh optimism into the market, but the broader recovery story remains unresolved.
The real challenge lies ahead. Bitcoin is once again approaching a heavy resistance band stretching from around $98,000 to $110,000 — an area that has repeatedly capped upside since late 2025. On-chain data shows this zone is packed with coins bought near prior cycle highs, meaning rallies into this range often trigger renewed selling as long-term holders look to exit at breakeven or modest profit.
This dynamic has played out several times already. Each push into the upper-$90,000s has been met with distribution, preventing Bitcoin from establishing a sustained structural reversal. With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market faces a familiar test: whether new demand can absorb persistent sell pressure.
Long-term holder behavior offers a mixed signal. Net realized profit-taking currently sits near 12,800 BTC per week — well below the aggressive distribution seen at previous cycle peaks, when weekly figures exceeded 100,000 BTC. This slowdown suggests selling pressure is more controlled, reducing immediate downside risk. Still, it remains enough to stall momentum if fresh buyers fail to step in, particularly those who accumulated during Q2 2025.
From a macro perspective, the True Market Mean around $81,000 continues to act as a critical reference point. Sustained trading above this level supports a constructive long-term outlook. Losing it over time would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, similar to the prolonged drawdown witnessed between April 2022 and April 2023.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: $98K Is the Gatekeeper
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $96,300, consolidating gains above recently reclaimed support levels. As long as BTC holds above $95,000, short-term momentum remains favorable, keeping the $98,000 resistance in focus.
That said, a clean break above $98,000 will not come easily. Overhead supply remains dense, and any surge in profit-taking could drag price back below $95,000. In that scenario, a deeper retracement toward the $91,000 region would come into play.
The bullish alternative hinges on a further slowdown in long-term holder selling. If distribution continues to fade, Bitcoin could push through $98,000 and make a credible run at $100,000. Turning six figures into support would mark a major sentiment shift and open a clearer path toward $110,000 — though fresh resistance would likely emerge beyond that milestone.