Zcash Plans Face Critical Test as Price Hits Last Support Zone

01. Dec 2025 Posted by Bailey S. on News

Zcash has fallen roughly 21% in the past 24 hours, dragging its seven-day loss to nearly 33% and turning its monthly trend negative. Even so, the cryptocurrency still shows an impressive three-month gain of over 780%, underscoring the power of its earlier rally.

Despite the volatility, ZEC remains inside the bullish ascending channel that has guided each major breakout since September. Price action has now tapped the lower trend line, the final major support keeping the long-term uptrend intact. A break here would dramatically reshape ZEC’s trajectory.

Two internal signals suggest the sell-off may be cooling. The first is a hidden bullish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index: from September 27 to December 1, ZEC printed a higher low while RSI printed a lower low — a pattern that often forms near exhaustion lows. RSI is also approaching the oversold zone. The last time this happened, around August 19, ZEC kick-started a strong new leg upward.

Correlation trends also tell part of the story. For most of the past year, ZEC maintained a weak to negative correlation with Bitcoin, sitting near –0.05 — a key factor behind its ability to outperform even when BTC struggled. But in the past week, this correlation has risen to 0.48, meaning Bitcoin’s decline has dragged Zcash lower in the short term. The correlation is still weaker than most major coins, leaving room for ZEC to decouple again.

With momentum shifting, price levels now carry extra importance. ZEC sits just above $348, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

  • A daily close below $348 would break the trend line and open downside targets at $309, and then $230 if selling accelerates.

  • A drop below $230 would put fresh lows on the table and signal the end of the broader rally.

For the bullish scenario to regain traction, ZEC must climb back toward $592, the key 0.618 Fibonacci zone — a rebound of roughly 64% from current levels. While sizable, such swings are far from unusual for Zcash.

If capital inflows (as hinted by improving CMF) continue to rise and ZEC reverts to its historically weak correlation with Bitcoin, the ascending channel may still hold. But if $348 fails, the entire structure flips bearish and the multi-month uptrend stalls — at least for now.