Crypto Market Holds Steady as Fed Rate Decision Looms

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices stayed largely unchanged on Tuesday as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday—a key event that could reshape market sentiment through the end of the year.

Market expectations lean toward a quarter-point cut, with CME FedWatch showing traders overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis-point move. Prediction platforms still give a slight chance to a 50 bps reduction, which could ignite a fresh rally in crypto if realized.

Up to $7.5 trillion in money market funds stand to see yields decline as policy eases, a potential catalyst for capital to rotate back toward equities and alternative assets like cryptocurrency. A modest cut is largely priced in, but a surprise half-point move or a more dovish policy outlook could trigger a broad market repricing.

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, bitcoin hovered between $115,000 and $116,000 on Tuesday, while ether remained similarly steady. Recent flows into crypto ETFs have added optimism, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recording six straight days of net inflows totaling about $260 million as of Sept. 15. Spot ether products followed suit, bringing in roughly $360 million over five consecutive sessions, suggesting renewed institutional demand after a choppy August.

Broader risk appetite has been buoyed by expectations of easier monetary policy, helping U.S. tech stocks reach fresh records. Still, a cautious or less-dovish Fed could dampen momentum, strengthening the dollar and briefly pressuring crypto prices.

Historically, September has been a challenging month for major cryptocurrencies, but the final quarter often turns bullish. Options data indicate that traders remain optimistic, with Bitcoin call open interest concentrated between $140,000 and $200,000 and Ethereum skew signaling rising odds of a $5,000–$6,000 year-end target—contingent on continued macro easing and persistent ETF inflows.