Bitcoin Holds Firm as Middle East Tensions Push Oil Higher

Geopolitical tensions are once again rattling global markets, sending oil prices higher and weighing on stocks and gold. Bitcoin, though, is holding its ground.

BTC was trading around $77,580 during Asian hours, little changed from midnight UTC. The stability stands out as other major assets reacted to a fresh escalation involving the U.S. and Iran.

Oil markets moved sharply higher after the U.S. carried out an attack on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude shipments. Iran responded with retaliatory action, adding to concerns about further disruption in the region.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed almost 2% to $85.10, while Brent crude gained 1.9% to $92.39, according to TradingView. Gold moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.8% to about $4,418 an ounce. Nasdaq futures also slipped 0.5%, while Asian stock markets traded lower.

Bitcoin has been notably stronger.

The cryptocurrency has gained roughly 23% during August, well ahead of gold's 9% rise and the Nasdaq's 4% advance. The broader crypto market has been less impressive, with XRP down about 0.8% and Solana slipping 0.6%.

Part of Bitcoin's strength may be tied to continued demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the Treasury's bond-buyback program have also helped support risk appetite toward crypto.

The macro picture, however, has become less straightforward.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone during his Jackson Hole speech on Friday. He argued that inflation has not been brought fully under control and said financial conditions are not currently restrictive enough. Recent progress on inflation, he suggested, does not yet represent a clear improvement in underlying price pressures.

That changed expectations around the Fed's next move.

MUFG FX strategist Lloyd Chan said markets have repriced U.S. interest-rate expectations following the speech. Traders are now assigning a 58% probability to a September rate hike and pricing in roughly 1.5 hikes through the end of the year.

For Bitcoin, that leaves the market facing a difficult mix of strong momentum and rising macro uncertainty.

Giottus CEO Vikram Subbaraj urged traders to remain cautious rather than aggressively increase leverage. He pointed to roughly $77,000 as an important near-term support level, while identifying the $79,400 to $80,800 area as the main resistance zone.

That range could become particularly important ahead of the U.S. jobs report scheduled for September 4.

For now, Bitcoin's ability to remain stable while oil surges and traditional markets retreat is another sign of its relative strength. Whether that resilience continues will depend heavily on both the geopolitical situation and the Fed's next policy signal.