Polymarket Plans U.S. Comeback as CFTC Shift Opens Door to Sports-Focused Prediction Markets
Polymarket is officially staging its return to the United States, with its U.S. app now rolling out to early waitlisted users as of Wednesday. The relaunch marks a major milestone for the largest blockchain-based prediction market, which was forced out of the country in early 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) deemed its event markets to be unregistered derivatives.
But the regulatory tides have turned.
After years of strict enforcement—treating event contracts as prohibited “binary options”—the CFTC’s stance softened dramatically in 2024. The shift followed its high-profile legal defeat to Kalshi, Polymarket’s top competitor, over political event contracts. The ruling effectively opened the door for prediction markets to return under a more permissive regime.
Polymarket seized the moment.
Over the summer, the platform acquired licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCX for $112 million. That purchase set the stage for formal CFTC approval, which arrived on Nov. 25 under an Amended Order of Designation clearing Polymarket to reenter the U.S. market. Founded in 2020 by early Ethereum investor Shayne Coplan—who was previously questioned by the DOJ about election betting—the platform now plans to lead with sports markets before expanding “to everything,” according to Coplan’s latest post on X.
Sports: The Next Frontier
Sports betting is becoming the battleground for prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, even as state regulators assess how these new products fit within gaming laws.
Both firms have inked distribution deals with major sports organizations, including the NHL and Professional Pickleball Association. They’re also racing for mainstream exposure through partnerships with large media and gaming brands. Polymarket recently teamed up with fantasy giant PrizePicks and is set to operate as the clearinghouse for DraftKings’ upcoming prediction platform.
Kalshi, meanwhile, secured a deal with CNN and rolled out its own football markets through a Robinhood partnership—though not without friction. Robinhood previously halted Super Bowl-related markets following CFTC pressure, but at peak periods has still accounted for more than half of Kalshi’s trading volume, according to Bernstein.
Kalshi now faces pushback from Nevada and New Jersey regulators, with a late-November ruling confirming it must comply with Nevada gaming rules.
Volume Wars & Billion-Dollar Ambitions
The second half of the year has been explosive for both prediction market rivals. In October—the strongest month on record—Kalshi posted $5.81 billion in trading volume, overtaking Polymarket’s $3.7 billion.
Even so, Polymarket is pushing for a massive valuation leap. The platform reportedly aims for up to a $15 billion valuation after securing $2 billion in strategic funding from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, at a prior $9 billion valuation. It also grabbed headlines earlier this year when Donald Trump Jr. joined as an advisor.
With federal approval secured and U.S. rollout underway, Polymarket now wants to reclaim dominance—starting on the turf where prediction markets and sports betting converge.