VanEck Eyes $644K Bitcoin as It Targets Half of Gold’s Market Cap by 2035

07. Oct 2025 Posted by Laurent C. on News

Bitcoin’s growing dominance in global finance is once again under the spotlight as investment firm VanEck predicts that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could capture half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization, implying a potential price of $644,000 per BTC.

“Bitcoin now mirrors the physical and monetary attributes of gold,” said Mathew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, in an X post on Tuesday. The firm believes that as the digital economy expands, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value will become increasingly central.

Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands around $2.48 trillion, up more than 12% over the past month. The asset recently set a new record high of $126,080 before slightly retreating to $124,529.

While some analysts agree with VanEck’s directional thesis, others caution on timing.

So far, gold has outperformed Bitcoin in 2025, rising 49% year-to-date compared to Bitcoin’s 31%. Still, strategists like Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital see the two assets as natural complements: “Gold and Bitcoin have become the ultimate ‘debasement trade.’ Reaching parity makes sense as institutional money shifts toward inflation-resistant assets.”

VanEck’s bullish scenario rests on several long-term drivers — younger consumer adoption in emerging markets, improvements from Bitcoin Layer 2 networks, and increased institutional participation. In its July 24, 2024, research report, the firm envisioned Bitcoin settling 10% of international trade and central banks allocating 2.5% of reserves to BTC by 2050.

By that timeline, VanEck projects a $2.9 million Bitcoin, with the broader Bitcoin Layer 2 economy valued at $7.6 trillion — signaling a future where digital assets form the backbone of global commerce.

Meanwhile, traders are watching historical cycle patterns closely. Bitcoin’s previous peaks occurred roughly 500 to 550 days after halving, and as of October 2025, it’s been 534 days since the April 20, 2024 halving. But this cycle may break tradition.

With the Fed’s rate cuts just beginning and potential inflation shocks from new trade policies, the next Bitcoin peak could arrive at least 180 days later than historical norms.

If VanEck’s projections hold, Bitcoin’s journey from digital gold to global monetary reserve could mark one of the most transformative wealth shifts of the 21st century.